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| 人口年龄结构、房价上涨与居民消费实证研究——基于省际面板数据 |
| Population Age Structure, Rising House Prices and Residents′ Consumption ——An Empirical Study Based on Inter Provincial Panel Data |
| 投稿时间：2021-12-08 |
| DOI：10.16018/j.cnki.cn32-1499/c.202202010 |
| 中文关键词: 少儿抚养比 老年抚养比 面板门槛模型 中介效应模型 |
| 英文关键词: child dependency ratio old age dependency ratio panel threshold model mediation effect model |
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| 中文摘要: |
| 基于2002—2019年全国除新疆及港澳台地区外30个省市的面板数据，引入面板门槛模型和中介效应模型，研究了人口年龄结构、房价上涨与居民消费的关系并进行了实证检验，结果表明:房价上涨对居民消费存在单门槛效应，合理范围内的房价上涨能促进居民消费，不合理的过快上涨则会抑制居民消费；在不考虑房价中介效应前提下，少儿抚养比与居民消费成正比，老年抚养比与消费成反比；房价中介效应极大地改变了人口年龄结构对消费的影响，在房价中介效应影响下少儿抚养比与消费水平呈负相关，老年抚养比与居民消费成正相关。 |
| 英文摘要: |
| Based on the panel data of 30 provinces and cities except Xinjiang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan from 2002 to 2019, this paper introduces panel threshold model and intermediary effect model, studies the relationship between population age structure, housing price increase and residents′ consumption, and makes an empirical test. The results show that housing price increase has a single threshold effect on residents′ consumption, and reasonable housing price increase will promote residents' consumption, while unreasonable excessive increase will inhibit residents′ consumption. Without considering the intermediary effect of house price, the dependency ratio of children is directly proportional to residents′ consumption, while the dependency ratio of the elderly is inversely proportional to consumption. The intermediary effect of house price has greatly changed the influence of population age structure on consumption. Under the influence of intermediary effect of house price, the dependency ratio of children is negatively correlated with consumption level, the dependency ratio of the elderly is positively correlated with residents′ consumption. |
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